The global rice market has faced ups and downs in recent years, especially compared to other staples like wheat and maize. While wheat and maize prices more than doubled between August 2020 and May 2022 due to the Ukraine war, rice prices remained relatively stable until mid-2022. However, from August 2022 to January 2024, the FAO indica rice price index surged by 45%, driven by weather concerns like El Niño and export restrictions from India.

El Niño-induced droughts affected rice production in Southeast Asia, with the USDA projecting a 1.3% decline in the region’s output for 2023-2024. India’s export restrictions further exacerbated price hikes, impacting domestic markets and raising concerns about food security, especially in ASEAN nations.

However, since January 2024, rice prices have declined by 4%. El Niño has ended, and La Niña, forecasted to bring increased rainfall, is expected to boost rice production. Additionally, falling fertilizer prices contribute to optimism for further stabilization in rice prices. In May 2024, domestic prices in key producers like Vietnam, China, and the Philippines showed signs of decline, signaling a stabilizing Asian rice market.

Ref: FAO rice price index, USDA, NOAA reports.